Even after surrendering Artsakh and "enclaves" Armenia`s leadership will get new war similar to Sept 2022 one - expert
ArmInfo. Azerbaijan will use force against Armenia - security guarantees are not a deterrent to limited escalation, says Sergey Melkonyan, an expert at the Institute of Oriental Studies, RA Academy of Sciences.
The expert noted that the annual assessment of threats from the US intelligence community was published yesterday. It contains a small part dedicated to Armenian-Azerbaijani relations.
In this vein, Melkonyan highlighted the most important details in his opinion.
According to him, firstly, tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan will continue, even despite the fact that Baku managed to capture Nagorno-Karabakh.
"A possible conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2024 could be short-term and of limited intensity.
Factors that increase the risk of a new conflict: Azerbaijan's willingness to use force and military pressure to achieve goals; close proximity of military personnel; the absence of a ceasefire mechanism and a peace treaty," the expert said.
At the same time, he believes that Azerbaijan's desire to obtain a "corridor" increases the risk of using military force.
"Hence the conclusion: Azerbaijan will use force against Armenia. Security guarantees are not a deterrent mechanism for limited escalation.
The most likely direction of attack is Tavush to obtain "enclaves". If there is no harsh reaction from external actors, Baku will try to break through the corridor as quickly as possible.
"Appeasing the aggressor does not work. Even having surrendered Artsakh and the "enclaves" at the negotiations, the Armenian leadership will get a new war similar to September 2022, when they lost more than 220 soldiers and about 200 sq. km of territory with strategic heights," he said.